The 2019-20 pneumonia season fatality data, which appears significantly influenced by COVID-19, appears to be reporting complete, so an update is in order. Sometimes the numbers change by small amounts for some time after they’re ‘complete’ but I believe what’s available is now useful. Here’s a brief overview and analysis of the statistics:
- For the prior 6 seasons (2013-2019), the annual total pneumonia deaths varied between ~168k and ~193k with an average of ~180k.
- The 2019-20 season total was ~262k, or ~82k = 45% above average.
- For the prior 6 seasons, the annual total deaths varied between ~2.58 Million and ~2.84 Million with an average of ~2.75 Million.
- The 2019-20 total was ~3.13 Million, or ~380k = 14% above average.
- The total US COVID-19 death count as of today is ~235k.
It’s not plausible to me that the COVID/pneumonia overlap is accurate. If only excess pneumonia deaths were due to COVID, that would mean 235k-82k=152k COVID deaths were not pneumonia. On the other hand, if all COVID deaths were counted in pneumonia deaths, only 262k-235k=27k pneumonia deaths would have occurred in the absence of COVID. Neither of these make sense, so the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Additionally, the ~380k higher total mortality is well in excess of even the most ‘optimistic’ attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The difference is nearly 150k. Where those came from is not clear, but I suspect 1) some excess deaths were not caused directly by COVID-19, but probably various mitigations such as people not getting proper healthcare, not getting exercise, suicide (those statistics are not available yet), etc., 2) some unreported COVID-19 deaths (eg. at home) exist, and 3) some COVID-19 deaths (maybe a significant number?) do not involve, or are not classified, as pneumonia. How much of that is directly COVID, and how much is the social and political response to COVID is probably not clearly and precisely knowable.
Based on the pneumonia numbers alone, the worst of the fatalities remain concentrated especially in the April-May 2020 timeframe, and also August 2020, both of which involved pneumonia deaths >200% of normal. Other than those times, pneumonia deaths have remaind <200% of normal, and are most recently <140% of normal. Even if the deviation from normal remains <200%, the number of pneumonia deaths appears likely to approach 10k/week around the second week in January (the rise becoming more noticeable beginning around Thanksgiving). However, it’s not clear whether the timing, or the magnitude of deviation from the norm will follow past patterns. One things that is quite consistent is that pneumonia deaths peak in the first three weeks of the year. Even in the 2019-20 season, there was a peak in week 2 which would have remained the peak except for COVID (the actual peak was week 15). This is not true of influenza deaths which peaks anywhere between week 2 and week 12. Total deaths seem to depend on the severity and timing of the flu season which, though the number of confirmed cases is usually low, contributes significantly to the seasonality of total deaths.
Given many places spent the summer continuing significant mitigation, much of the US populace remains likely susceptible to the virus. If the combination of transmission and fatality follows the usual curve, this winter may be, unfortunately, quite deadly. For another few weeks, still, I would not suggest too-severely restricting contact for the sake of exposure/transmission mitigation. By that I mean that younger healthy people who don’t have regular contact with at-risk populations should probably simply go about their normal lives (obviously wash your hands and don’t cough in peoples’ faces). However, certainly after Thanksgiving, it’s probably time for at-risk people to consider much more serious mitigation measures, and those who interface with at-risk populations ought to be careful (social distance, use masks indoors around people not in your quarantine group, etc.). More/most importantly, stay healthy, get some sun, take your vitamins (especially zinc, Vitamin D, etc.), get some exercise, and tend to your mental health.
Also, please, stop harassing and threatening each other about various mitigations, or the lack there of. Nearly all of you have become insufferable with, on one hand, “it’s all a hoax” and, on the other hand, “wear your mask.” Government needs to stay out the way and allow healthy people to take managed risks. The rest of us need to be respectful of each others’ risk management strategies, which means not forcing people to run their businesses, social groups, or lives in particular ways, while respecting the standards that such people and groups of people set for themselves. The fad of requiring masks and closing businesses is as destructive to human liberty, prosperity and, ultimately, survival, as disrespecting those who choose to close, require masks, social distance, etc. If a business requires a mask, wear a mask. If they don’t, don’t yell at them, say nasty things online, or, call the police (if you don’t like it, just don’t go there).
But if you’re asking my opinion, I’d suggest (in addition to the usual sanitary practices we should always do) from Thanksgiving through Valentines Day: for everyone – masks and social distancing indoors, and for those at elevated risk – self-isolation as much as practical and N95 masks when indoors near other people. Additionally, testing (preferably several days) after travel or general socializing may cut down on subsequent transmission, both directly, and indirectly through contact tracing. Regardless of who wins this election, please dial back the disrespect. It’s unhealthy.
Most importantly, make sure your relationship with God is solid. None of us can avoid physical death forever, and some won’t make it through the next year. Be ready, your time will come sooner or later. In the mean time, don’t be afraid…