Intro and Disclaimer

Hi! again from quarantine. This is the second of two overviews of my thoughts about the COVID-19 crisis. If you haven’t already, I’d encourage you to watch or read the first as I think it’s more important than this one. Today, I’ll talk specifically about COVID-19 and the global response to it, and make my own suggestions for wise risk management, and where to go from here. First, two disclaimers.

1. Subject matter experts are sometimes wrong, and non-experts are sometimes right. There is probably a positive correlation between expertise and correctness, but it’s not near 100%.
2. I am not a subject matter expert about medicine. I have neither formal education nor professional expertise in medicine. However, I do have both formal education and professional expertise in risk management, and some of what I talk about today involves risk management.

Big Picture

I’ll start with three big-picture opinions which I’ll simply state with minimal defense. I think these are well reasoned, and I’m happy to explain and debate them, but here and now, I’ll keep them short.

COVID-19 is not just another cold. It is a much more serious hazard.

Without any mitigation, COVID-19 appears at least an order of magnitude more deadly than other common viral infections like the flu. The data suggests it’s very contagious and moderately deadly, and it has already taken the lives of people I know who, I believe, would otherwise be alive today.

Government is dangerous, has already cost lives, and will continue to do so. It is a hazard.

The Chinese government threatens people for communicating what they know about COVID-19, the WHO made false claims and recommendations contrary to risk reduction, and the US CDC and FDA have obstructed Americans’ ability to make and distribute tests, use medication, get protective equipment and otherwise wisely manage COVID-19 risk. On top of these deadly hazards, broad-based, government-imposed lockdowns are being forced – without informed consent – on most people around the world. There is no safety and efficacy data to support this, and no measurement or even estimate has been made of lives lost from these measures. Governments are hazards which warrant mitigation.

Therefore, out of compassion, we should wisely mitigate risk, for the safety of ourselves and others.

As I said before, prioritizing God is most important. Having done that, we love others, as well as ourselves, when we wisely manage risk, regardless of the presence or absence of any government action. Wise risk management doesn’t mean being paranoid nor ignoring the costs of mitigation, but it does mean acting to reduce the incidence and/or severity of hazards like these. We should all do that.

Risk Management

My recommendations for everyone to manage COVID-19 risk are the things I do.

The ordinary, everyday level of risk has increased significantly due to COVID-19. At the expense of completeness, I’ll focus on two key categories of virus acquisition risk, exposure risk and transmission risk, that everyone can mitigate to some extent. I won’t detail every method, but I’ll highlight a few things, and ask you to research the rest yourself. I’ll also decribe some government and economic risk mitigations which at least many of you can do. Work is already underway to reduce consequences after virus acquisition in the form of developing effective therapies and cures, which I’ll simply encourage us all to assist however we can.

Virus exposure risk mitigation: Quarantine, physical (social) distance, testing

1. Quarantine – People who are probably contagious (ala ‘probable cause’ or ‘extraordinary risk’) shall be quarantined. Also, if your normal level of risk is now unacceptably high, consider voluntarily quarantining yourself. People in quarantine, like me, are subject to additional burden, so please help ensure their needs are met. I’d like to thank my family for doing that.
2. Physical distance (to reduce airborne exposure) – Studies show indoors, with low or recycled air flow, airborne infections have plausibly occurred 12-15 ft. from infected people. I try to maximize separation indoors (ideally 12-15ft), and maintain 6ft not downwind outdoors.
3. Test – A positive test is inconvenient but it triggers quarantine which reduces risk for everyone. As soon as testing is available, I’ll get them at sensible times. You can too.

Virus transmission risk mitigation: Masks, hand washing, and clean surfaces

1. Wear a mask – anywhere airborne transmission could plausibly occur. I wear mine in enclosed spaces with people not exclusively in my quarantine group, outdoors near other people, and near objects that may be touched by others in the next ~day.
2. Wash (or sanitize) your hands – to reduce hand-to-face contamination. Gloves don’t reduce this risk and may increase it. I clean my hands frequently, before and after touching at-risk things.
3. Keep surfaces clean – which works together with clean hands to reduce transmission. I keep things clean that I touch or expect to touch.

Government and economic risk: Inventory, stealth, quarantine tyranny

1. Inventory – Appropriately inventory and use it strategically. We stock at least a month’s supply of the consumables we regularly use. Hoarding hurts others, but running out hurts yourself, and others. We rotate and use our stock, so we don’t run out and we can help people we know who run out of things we have in stock. This is an all-the-time strategy you can do, too.
2. Be stealthy – I try to avoid unnecessary law enforcement attention. Whether they’re right or wrong, I’m less free in jail or paying fines, and my ability to help others is reduced. Be careful and strategic with any civil disobedience you consider. For example, drive in church is careful and strategic. Crowded, unmasked, indoor church is foolish and impulsive.
3. Quarantine tyranny – The tyranny pandemic predates COVID-19. All federal, and most state and local, politicians violate human rights. I didn’t vote for or support anyone in government who is hurting you. If you supported or voted for them, you have tyranny disease, and it’s contagious. You have helped infect more people than bat soup. Please, quarantine yourself, at least from anything government-related like voting, until you completely recover. Don’t you violate peoples’ rights and don’t support or vote for anyone who does.

Where do we go from here?

The answer should already be obvious. First, put God first. Next, respect human rights: quarantine the contagious, and allow everyone else to choose whether and how to work or be out in public. Finally, compassionately mitigate risk with maximum care.

Even if we do all this, COVID-19 will take lives, as will government, and the economy may suffer. At this point, these are unavoidable tragedies. But I am convinced that widespread, careful implementation of these strategies will minimize further harm from COVID-19 and government. Conversely, if many people fail to do these things, greater harm, beyond the inevitable, will occur, some of which will be long-lasting. This is my strategy. I hope you’ll implement it for the benefit of everyone.